Mamata Banerjee looks beyond West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee gestures during a sit-in in Kolkata, February 5, 2019. Reuters

Quite a few political tremors have been felt in India of late. The Narendra Modi government, exasperated and fatigued by a year-long agitation by farmers, has finally caved in to their demands. But that is no sign that the farmers, their ire raised by the new farm-related laws the union government had thought would come into implementation, are yet ready to go home. They have other demands they feel should be met as well.

Move on to what Prime Minister Modi has been engaged in. He has laid the foundation of a new airport to be built in Noida. And then he has gone for a frontal assault on dynastic politics. Without making any reference to the Indian National Congress, he has flailed away at its dependence on a family, clearly informing his audience that a political organisation so tied to a clan offers little hope for the future. One can be quite sure Rahul Gandhi and his followers will hit back, sooner rather than later.

All of these realities apart, the focus today is now on Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress. The West Bengal chief minister has indeed been riding high in the public mind since her party's impressive electoral triumph over the Bharatiya Janata Party, a victory that was humbling as also humiliating for the top brass of the BJP. Mamata has in these past few post-election months been talked of as a political figure eminently qualified to rally an all-India opposition to Modi's BJP at the next general election in India.

That of course remains to be seen. But what now appears to be spurring the TMC on is the rapidity with which significant political figures from other parties have been making a beeline for it. One of the earliest of such figures was Babul Supriyo, who once served as a minister of state in the BJP government in Delhi. Supriyo's desertion of the BJP cheered many in West Bengal even as individuals like the actor Mithun Chakraborty tied their fortunes to Hindutva politics.

In these past few days, Mamata Banerjee has dominated the conversation in the Indian media yet again and for good reason. The entry of former Meghalaya chief minister PA Sangma, along with 11 other Congress MLAs in the state assembly, into the TMC has clearly left Sonia and Rahul Gandhi stunned. It is a circumstance rare in politics and not just in politics, for it is an image of a party, in this instance the Congress, turning its back on itself. Sangma, unhappy over the appointment of Vincent Pala as the leader of the Meghalaya State Congress by Sonia Gandhi, and those 11 others have now elevated the TMC to the position of the leading opposition group in the Meghalaya assembly.

The Congress has been haemorrhaging — and not merely in Meghalaya. In recent months some of its more prominent politicians have ditched it for the BJP, which is good as suggesting that opportunism has come in where principles ought to have been. But while that is true, there is the other truth relating to the Congress leadership, symbolised by the mother-son team of Sonia and Rahul. It is simply that the leadership has been uninspiring and so unable to provide a credible challenge to the Modi team on issues that matter at the national level.

Mamata, once part of the Congress, was till recent times inclined on her visits to Delhi to meet Sonia. On her latest trip to the national capital, though, she studiously stayed away from visiting the Congress president. Her response to media queries on the subject elicited an unusual response from her. She made it known that she did not have to visit the Congress chief every time she was in Delhi. And then she went further. It was not ordained in the constitution, as she put it, that she should meet Sonia on her visits to Delhi.

The reading could not be clearer. The West Bengal chief minister does not anymore consider the Congress a credible opposition and perhaps has also abandoned the idea of the party returning to power, either on its own or through leading a coalition, in the near future. Which is a good reason why the TMC has been focusing on politics in the north-east. But, of course, if the TMC means to be a credible opposition to the BJP at the centre, it will need to branch out into such states as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana and, in addition, Goa and the south.

That will be a tough call for Mamata, but what she can do between now and the next general election is forge alliances with India's secular as well as socialist and communist political parties as a means of putting up a strong challenge to the BJP. Such a coalition must of course include the Congress, which not only governs a few states but is also the leading opposition in a number of states. Mamata may consider Rahul a child who cannot lead the Congress, but that ought not to be a reason for her to burn her bridges to the grand old party. And, yes, Modi and his party are yet to see, despite the debacle in West Bengal, their popularity stripped away. The BJP remains formidable.

For now, certainly, the TMC can begin to soak in the happiness that comes of knowing that it is rising in appeal beyond West Bengal. In recent weeks, political individuals apart from Sangma and his band of followers have made their way to the TMC tent. Among them have been Kirti Azad, Mukul Roy, Soumen Roy, Pavan Verma and Nafisa Ali. Luizinho Faleiro, the former chief minister of Goa, is now in the TMC. Ashok Tanwar, once an aide to Rahul and now in the TMC, has publicly made it known that only Mamata has the potential to beat the BJP in the next general election.

The Trinamool Congress is on a roll. Mamata, encouraged by the entry of Kirti Azad, Pavan Verma, a former aide to Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and Ashok Tanwar from Haryana, now has her sights on Bihar and Haryana. A lot will yet happen between now and 2024, when India goes to its next election.

For now, though, Mamata is not just a headache for the Congress. She could well be giving the BJP some sleepless nights soon.