Taliban fan fears of terror in South and South-East Asia

South and South-East Asia are on high alert for Islamist terror activities after the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban, considered to be a violent, regressive force with links to terror groups including al-Qaeda, following the withdrawal of forces led by the United States.

Islamic State has already bared its fangs, launching an attack on the Kabul airport in late August, killing Afghan civilians and Western troops and injuring hundreds. The fact that the Taliban are at loggerheads with the IS makes the situation in Afghanistan all the more vulnerable.

In Indonesia, Densus 88, known as the country's counterterrorism police, has begun monitoring social media and other sources for Taliban sympathisers. The country that has the world's largest Muslim population has the experience of dealing with extremist groups wanting to impose harsh Islamist law in the country.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has tweeted that he met senior Taliban official Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai in Doha days before the Kabul attack to ensure that Afghanistan "does not become a breeding ground for terrorist organisations and activities".

The Indonesian alert stems from the worry that Islamist extremism threatens its objectives of rebuilding the pandemic-ravaged economy with foreign investment and tourism. Foreigners have often been targets in terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, Afghans have become the largest contingent of refugees taken in by Indonesia.

The major extremist group in South-East Asia is Jemaah Islamiya. Indonesian police arrested dozens of the group's members in early August, suspecting it of planning a terror attack on Indonesia's Independence Day. The group is suspected to have several Taliban sympathisers.

Nikkei Asia reported: "Jemaah Islamiyah members received military training in Afghanistan during the 1990s, and the group is alleged to have ties to al-Qaida. Indonesian police have also been keeping close watch on Jamaah Ansharut Daulah, a local group that pledges allegiance to ISIS."

In Malaysia, the police are probing reports that the Taliban had detained two of its nationals. Both detainees are alleged to be involved with ISIS. In The Philippines, the defence secretary has gone on record that they are now on the alert for any significant movement among local terror elements. In Singapore, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has focused on the links between Jemaah Islamiyah and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

In South Asia, India has faced the maximum trouble from terrorism, mostly sponsored allegedly by Pakistan. Anti-India terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad may use Afghanistan as a base to launch operations in Jammu and Kashmir. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, could revive itself in Afghanistan for launching fresh attacks in Pakistan.

Bangladesh and Pakistan are also facing terror threats in the changed scenario. The ascendance of the Taliban is expected to encourage not only the al-Qaeda in Afghanistan but also Jama'atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and Neo-JMB in Bangladesh, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Harkatul Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammad, al-Qaeda and Tehrik-e-Taliban in Pakistan, although the latter would be relieved if these groups shift bases from Pakistan to Afghanistan.

Extremist political Islamist organisations, such as Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islam, Hefazat-e Islam and Pakistan's Tehrik-e-Labbaik would also be encouraged. The Taliban serves as a success story for these organisations which are intent in establishing sharia law in their countries.

Bangladesh has cracked down the maximum in South Asia against terror outfits ever since the Holey Artisan attacks of 2016 that saw five terrorists kill 20 people in a bakery shop. The hardline group, Hefazat-e Islam, had to dissolve its committee following the news of ties between its leaders with Afghan-returnee foreign fighters.

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban has triggered celebrations on social media in Bangladesh. In early 2021, police in capital Dhaka arrested four Islamists suspected of trying to find a route to Afghanistan through India and Pakistan to join the Taliban. They were part of a group of 10 Bangladeshis who were hoping to join the Taliban, media reports said.

Many of Bangladesh's terror groups have members trained in Afghanistan and others who have fought alongside the Taliban. While the Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime of the Dhaka Metropolitan Police is worried about the implications of the victory of the Taliban for Bangladesh. South Asia experts like Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson Center, says even though Bangladesh's counterterrorism operations killed terrorists, it also paved the way for future radicalisation of non-militant Islamists in the country.

However, the real fear of terror's revival comes from the future relationship between the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The latter's fighters have been hiding in Afghanistan for years and have formed deep ties with the Taliban and have even fought alongside them. In the run-up to power, the Taliban released thousands of terrorists from Afghan jails and they mostly include al-Qaeda personnel.

The American security review magazine, War On The Rock reported recently: "Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent had already hailed the US withdrawal as a victory, and changed the name of its magazine from Nawai Afghan Jihad (Voice of the Afghan Jihad) to Nawai Ghazwat-ul-Hind (Voice of the Conquest of India) early this year, indicating where its energies could be focused going forward."