Trump, China and the ‘Trap of Thucydides’

"It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this inspired in Sparta, that made the war inevitable." This observation of Thucydides in the context of status quo of ancient Greek states has recently been popularized as the 'Trap of Thucydides'. It has been done given the present goings-on between the US and China. So, one may wonder, has the time come to replace the terms 'Athens' and 'Sparta' with 'China' and 'America'? Tensions were always there as China continued to mark progress. America is the current superpower which regards that its hegemony is being threatened by the rise of China. That China will lead the world in the near future had also been predicted by international relation theorists earlier. So, what's the point we deal with now?

November 8, 2016. Whether it was a black or a shiny day in the history of America, only time will tell. What we commoners can sense now is that something is not right, something ominous is going to happen in the global scheme of things. Feel it or not, a plethora of courses have been changed or are in the process of change since November 8. Donald Trump, the newly elected American president, seems to have resorted to shocking, surprising, to some extent entertaining us since his campaign for the White House kicked nearly two years ago. Everything he was saying or doing was merely a part of hisattention-seeking election campaign and that it would die down once the election was done is what we all believed. Well, he didn't fail to prove us wrong.

Within a week of his tenure he has made it duly clear that he wants to undo Obama's legacy. In two executive orders he has canceled Obamacare programs, and has also ordered the deportation of illegal immigrants. He has made a list of seven (read Muslim countries) countries and imposed a ban on their citizens entering America. Apparently, a wall on the US-Mexico border will be built too. He has staunchly supported Brexit while lashing out at German Chancellor Angela Markel and at the rest of the Europe for allowing scores of refugees into their countries. Mysteriously, though, it appears that he has developed some rapport with the United States' full-time foe Russia while China, Iran, North Korea, Palestine, Syria, Cuba, Mexico and most of the Muslim countries seem to have fallen into his hit/hate list.

"A nation is raping our economy" is the rhetoric he used during his election campaign, pointing to China. He also has opted for an imposition of 45% tax on Chinese imports, raising genuine concerns of a possible trade war. A recent report published in the Wall Street Journal duly explained that the US would suffer more in a trade war. In Davos, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quick with his response, "No one can win a trade war".

Tensions escalated further when new White House spokesman Sean Spicer said, "The USA will prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea". Rex Tillerson, Trump's nominee for secretary of state, also echoed Sean Spicer. It may easily be assumed that Trump tacitly supports them both. The Global Times, a Chinese nationalist tabloid, reacted belligerently saying, "If Trump's diplomatic team shapes future Sino-US ties as it is doing now, the two sides had better prepare for a military clash." On 20 January, the same day as President Donald Trump's inauguration, Liu Guoshun, a Chinese army official said, "The possibility of a Sino-US war increases as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up" and "China is preparing for a potential military clash."

America and China are the two most powerful nations in the world both economically and militarily. Simply put, the whole world will have to bear the brunt if there is a trade war between them, let alone a military confrontation given the fact that both countries are the nuclear powerrs. China has developed the most sophisticated weapons and has made striking progress in all sectors, outperforming the US in many cases. Napoleon Bonaparte once said, "China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will move the world." Now it is matter of waiting and seeing whether Trump can refrain from teasing the wide-awake giant.

A study conducted by the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs shows that in 12 out of 16 cases there were wars between a ruling power and a rising power. However, in the very last three cases, the ruling power and the rising power didn't end up engaging in direct conflict. A war-like situation and a real war are not the same thing. Yet a desperate Trump, a rising power China and the prevailing situations continue to threaten our optimism.

If we put all these points together we can note the omens in the sky. Seeing the prospect of total destruction of our globe if a third world war was waged, the noted scientist Albert Einstein warned us almost a century ago thus, "I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones". We know what he was hinting at. All these facts worry us and lead us to asking: Will Beijing and Washington be able to avoid the so-called 'Trap of Thucydides'?