"I will huff, I will puff and I will build a big beautiful wall to keep all of you Mexicans, Rapists, Muslims, Chinese and all other non-white folks out of the Nirvana that is America. I especially hate the Muslims and I will stop you from polluting my Nirvana on day one".
Thus goes the current Republican frontrunner Donald Trump. At the beginning of his improbable run for the highest office in the US and arguably most powerful office in the world, lot of us sidled next to the fireplace and turned on the cable TV. It was entertainment for free. We did not need pay-per-view to watch a political version of MMA (Mixed Martial Arts) fights. We all thought it was going to be short-lived, so get as much fun as you can while the show is on. I distinctly remember when during the first televised debate Trump refused to pledge that he will not run an independent campaign. I almost came out of the couch with laughter.
That was then and this is now. Something odd has happened to that entertainment show that started on a June day while The Donald came down the escalators, along with his Slovenian wife, and declared Mexicans are rapists and he will build a giant wall. It was supposed to end and he was supposed to go back to his gaudy man cave somewhere in Manhattan. What has happened instead is this – a good 40% of the Republican Primary voters support Trump. That probably translates to about 30% of the total American electorate. That is a far cry from a TV show. A total of 22 million votes have been cast so far in Republican primaries. Trump has won 8.2 million of those. Remember, unlike the Democrats the Republicans had something like 18 candidates at the start of the process. So, let us put the blinders away for a minute, hold our noses and accept that Trump is winning. That gives him a fair shot at becoming the next US president. Mainly because Hilary is a flawed candidate and the opposition has managed to cast her as an untrustworthy apparatchik. In a contest against Trump, Hilary will need to energize the Obama Coalition of minorities, liberals and the educated. So far she has failed to ignite this torch. Lo and behold the romp that Bernie Sanders is on! The Obama Coalition is feeling the Bern!
Who supports Trump then? The Atlantic magazine has identified the following attributes based on surveys and in depth analysis. Here goes:
So, these are those who vote for Trump. In the fifties through the seventies, these people held down factory jobs, got hired right out of high school, and there was an informal referral and hiring system that preferred to hire within the family. The jobs were in auto, farming, landscaping, mining and other "blue collar or grey collar" arenas. They paid well enough to afford little luxuries. All of these jobs are under pressure. They are moving to countries with cheaper labor and laxer tax environment. The bloated tax code of the US has also put incentives on big corporations to move to places like Ireland. These deals are called "inversions", a fancy name for tax dodge. So yes, the resentment is real.
What the Republican Party never realized is this, by being conservative and trying to preserve the old ways of living they have become the party of the dispossessed. A proletariat party of sorts. The leadership kept talking about tax cuts for the "job creators" whereas there is no evidence that jobs are based on tax codes. The leadership was too busy catering to the top 1% when the ground shifted and the party became a party of the people with real fear of the global and skills based economy.
Assuming that a Trump Presidency is a real possibility I think it is high time we examine his positions even if they are ill defined and at times undefined. Let us take them one at a time.
The rise of Trump has given all of us pause. However, we are simply deriding the guy without looking deeply as to why he is resonating and why he may very well become the next President. Bangladeshis comprise a small minority of voters in the US. The Muslims are about 3% of the American population. However, if the Muslims would put together cogent outreach programs that aim at understanding why Trump resonates, maybe, just maybe, we can avoid a Trump Presidency and the banning rhetoric!