Two lies don’t make a truth

Why should the BNP, which has often been highly critical of India and blamed the giant neighbour for the 'murder of democracy' in Bangladesh, suddenly seek India's help to restore democracy in Bangladesh? Just because there has been a change of regime in Delhi? And why should its leaders float a story of BJP chief Amit Shah speaking to BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia — when Shah insists he never made the call? And why should a senior aide of Tarique Rahman send to newspapers like the UK-based I B Times fake statements attributed to US Congressmen being critical of the Bangladesh government crackdown on the Opposition blockade?

BNP leaders seem to have bitten much more than they can chew. Disinformation is something most political parties may use at some point of time, but BNP leaders need to realize it works only if the story is reasonably credible or plausible and if the tactic is adopted occasionally and employed discreetly. Disinformation does not work if one unleashes it in waves. Tarique Rahman may feel any rubbish he talks will boost the sagging morale of his partymen but he has clearly crossed the line. When he talks about 1971, he often ends up saying what might have embarrassed his late father if he were alive. A Bengali revolt in early March would have ended in a quick victory against Pakistani forces, said Tarique Rahman in one of his London speeches. Ask 20 military strategists and they will tell you a rebel army – or any military formation for that matter – takes a while to come into its own under a new command and control structure. So a rebellion started by Bengali officers ending a quick defeat of well organized Pakistani forces is a day dream that only the most militarily naïve person is expected to believe.

Tarique is neither a historian nor a military strategist and his claims on 1971 ring hollow. He is a self-declared political thinker whose 'political thought' has been compiled to provide Bangladesh with the equivalent of a Lenin or a Mao. But if he were to impress his nation as a serious politician, he should get back to talking political basics – not rake up the ghosts of 1971 in the most impossible way. And both he and his mother will have to reconsider the utility of drawing on 'foreign connections' even by the most impossible form of name-dropping that now stands badly exposed after the denials by Amit Shah and the US Congressmen.

Some might argue that it is a better idea to let Tarique speak utter nonsense that exposes him rather than black him out in sheer anger after he makes preposterous claims. The trouble is that in Bangladesh's charged, polarised atmosphere, even the most preposterous claim works with those who support a politician. They tend to believe even the worst of lies. So Tarique can bargain for some kudos coming his way when he calls Bangabandhu a 'Razakar'. But that too has a limit. That "Laxmanrekha" (red line) was crossed when the so-called statement by US Congressmen was planted – as was the story about the Amit Shah call. It is indeed very poor politics if one were to hope to come to power by flaunting foreign connections but that happens when one fails to garner enough support for a mass movement. I have travelled across Bangladesh during recent strikes. I was in Chittagong on the day of the first BNP general strike on Dec 29 and could take around the city without any hassle a group of 11 Indian nationals who were seeking their roots in various parts of the Chittagong region. Our microbus did not encounter a single obstruction anywhere. Strikes and blockades are not clearly working. One may face the sudden misfortune of suffering a petrol bomb hit or end up being a victim of a rail track sabotage but most Bangladeshis have learnt to take it in their stride as just bad luck. That, they reason, should not stop their daily routine.

The BNP made one huge mistake by not joining the Jan 5, 2013 national polls which they would have won by all counts. The usual factor of anti-incumbency which has ensured a change of government every five years since the ouster of the Ershad military junta would have brought it back to power. Having missed that chance for reasons better known to mother and son, the BNP's politics seems to have degenerated to resembling the clinging of several unsteady men (and women) of straws. Never before has there been a need for a change in BNP's top leadership as now.

The BNP may well argue that the space for democratic agitation does not exist in Bangladesh anymore. That even the most peaceful agitation is met with police overkill. That the Hasina regime is a replica of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. But they will still have to answer why they stayed away from an election they would have won fairly easily. I have found BNP leaders trying to justify the boycott saying that was one election the Awami League would have heavily rigged. If they could not rig the city elections where few dozen seats were at stake, was it possible for them to rig a national parliament election involving 300 seats? The Awami League was beset, as it is now, with huge fratricidal strife and massive infighting and no party can rig an election if its cadres and supporters are not united. If the Awami league could not win a one-time safest seat like Gazipur, the place of Ahsanullah Master, how could they win Bangladesh? The reality is no party can win a poll against a popular mood. The best organised parties like the CPI(M) in West Bengal fail when the popular mood swings against them.

So if the BNP has not contested a poll it could win, its supporters can only curse its leaders and their political judgement – or misjudgement. And before the party jockeys for power, it would need to change these leaders who are seeking to swing the tide by name dropping foreign VIPs.