Of strategies, tactics and ulterior motives

Published : 12 March 2013, 06:31 PM
Updated : 12 March 2013, 06:31 PM

This week has arguably been the most remarkable one for the Bangladesh Test Cricket Team, marked by team performances and individual achievements. However, the nation's focus is hardly on the performance of our cricket team; but mainly on the political climate of the country.

The Awami League, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami have taken the centre stage each having different motives, which have all clogged up together in a big mess. Both the AL and the BNP, as the major political parties, share the mutually exclusive goal of winning the upcoming elections. In addition, the AL wants the trial of war criminals, while the BNP wants elections to be held under a caretaker government. Jamaat on the other hand desperately wants to save its leaders, accused of war crimes.

Awami League camp

The AL fought the last elections promising to end corruption (like every political party has promised so far) and seek the trial of war criminals. Corruption is part and parcel of Bangladesh politics; to keep matters simple let's ignore it for now. The AL had done a pretty good job of setting up the ICT and upholding the integrity of our judiciary system in the eyes of the world, till the Quader Mollah fiasco. What resulted after was something no one had expected – a general uprising of the youth demanding death penalty for crimes committed against humanity during the Liberation War.

A strong case can be made that it was indeed the Shahbagh momentum, which ensured the death penalty for Delwar Hossain Sayedee. However, many would argue that the Awami "Leagization" of Shahbagh has caused the movement to loose a lot of its integrity; the slogans and stage are taken over by pro-government civil society and cadres. The Shahbagh uprising presented an excellent opportunity for the AL to gain back some of the lost popularity as a result of the stock market crash, Destiny & Hallmark scams and failure to obtain World Bank funding for the Padma Bridge amongst others. In these circumstances, the ideal strategy for the government would have been to preserve the integrity of the Shahbagh Movement. None of the political parties had orchestrated Shahbagh; it was an uprising of the general population arising out of a sense of nationalism and patriotism. Had the Shahbagh integrity not been tarnished, the AL would have emerged as the "hero", having given the people what they wanted just in time before the elections; the AL could have easily swept the elections as a result of gaining popular momentum in the right time. Instead, the AL is now caught up in a mess of its own having too many things on its agenda – trial of war criminals, the permanent ban on JI politics and ensuring fair elections without the presence of a caretaker government.

BNP think tanks

The BNP has never taken a clear stance on the subject of the trial of war criminals. Like its counterpart AL, the BNP hasn't been able to make the most of the Shahbagh opportunity. The BNP should have supported the trial of the war criminals. This would have ensured a lot of the swing votes for the BNP in the upcoming elections. Lack of proactive reaction has hurt their popularity; the think tanks at the BNP should have seen this coming and been more proactive. As the elections are drawing closer, the BNP's demand for a caretaker government to hold fair elections is growing stronger by the day. Any form of protest or strikes by the BNP is perceived by the general population to be in support of saving the war criminals. Furthermore, the strikes by the BNP are enabling the JI to create nuisance and violence in the society, which is causing more and more of the swing voters to sway away from the BNP.

What can the BNP do, if the AL is not open to any dialogue with regards to holding elections under the caretaker government? The BNP needed to be more patient and played the waiting game. They could have been silent on the whole issue and managed to stay out of the limelight as a lot of the other minor political parties have done. Once the situation with regards to the trials of war criminals had cooled down or faded away and elections were much closer, the BNP could boycott the elections. Any election without the participation of the BNP won't be accepted neither by the people of Bangladesh nor the International community. The AL, on the other hand, has been able to capitalize on the lack of strategic planning by the BNP.

Jamaat-e-Islami

Syed Bashir, in his article (Jamaat's Grand 3-D Strategy) provides the perfect snapshots of their strategy. Jamaat's strategy has indeed been of – disruption, demoralization and destabilization. This strategy is very short sighted. In some ways this is triggered by the masses, who are calling for a ban on the JI politics. Prolonged continuation of such strategies by the JI may further trigger the public anger by bringing back violent memories of 1971. The government will no longer be able to hold back the police and armed forces from strongly retaliating to the JI Shibbir men if they continue with their violent tactics. Furthermore, as a result of the JI alliance with the BNP, a lot of the popular support for the BNP is shrinking. Who knows maybe at one point the JI might find itself cut loose by the BNP.

The Jamaat needs to realize that the activities they are carrying out cannot be and won't be tolerated in any society for prolonged periods. Their strategy and tactics are bound to backfire on them sooner or later. With increasing demand for a ban on the JI politics, they need to take a step back and rethink their game plan. While the JI might be a minority party, the country's population of 140 million means that it is still a sizable number. If the JI hadn't been threatening with civil war, attacking the police and destroying public property, it wouldn't have been that easy for the government to justify a ban on the JI.

Due to increasing support from the masses for the trial of war criminals, the JI cannot protect its top leaders accused of war crimes from being tried and prosecuted in the court of law. The JI indeed needs to let go of them and replace them with new and enlightened leadership, if it at all wants to survive.

In a nutshell

The government needs to adopt a focused strategy. Their primary focus should be the trial of war criminals and provide the key people involved, such as, witnesses and judges with sufficient protection. A government that cannot protect its citizens and law enforcing members is as good as none. The BNP needs to rebrand themselves with regards to their viewpoint. Any of the BNP's activities even though it's not all related to the JI is going to be perceived by the public that it's in support of the JI. Rebranding should be of utmost importance for the BNP to win back the support of the people. The JI needs to stop being short-sighted. They need to take a view of the long run and stop acting self-destructive.

While ample cases can be made for missed opportunities by the political parties, arguments can be made whether the current situation is part of the AL's grand strategy. The elections are drawing closer by the day and the AL might not have enough time to prosecute all those convicted of war crimes; is the AL planning to run elections on the promises of successful prosecutions of those convicted of war crimes? Only time will tell. Was it part of their strategy to push the BNP to react immaturely and thereby lose its popularity with the youth; did they push the JI on the brink of self-destruction, allowing the AL to call for their ban? We don't know, and it is unlikely we will ever know.

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Azfar Hossain is an entrepreneur.