As Jamaat-e-Islami goes to war, is the AL ready?

Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) as expected has declared a war of sort as the verdict dates of the major political leaders accused of war crimes comes closer. The verdict on Bachchu Razakar was a harbinger of the things to come and the hartal on 31st January is a case in point. But he was not a major leader though well known because of his media role. In fact he had no linkages with the JI for quite some time. So the JI really had no stake in his verdict except that it was against a 1971 fellow collaborator like them. But when the next set of accused who are the pillars of the party is sentenced, the reaction is expected to be deadlier.

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The issue of the War Crimes Trial is not the quality of the trial and obviously it's not something that is ever going to win many defenders anyway. The skype controversy is not the only one that has dogged the trial. The first verdict has drawn a lot of attention internationally for its lack of "fairness and credibility." But then few in Bangladesh are concerned about it because people are looking for revenge not anything else. All they want is a death sentence. And Bachchu Razakar case has confirmed what many had hoped for. That most sentences will lead to the gallows.

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Bachchu Razakar sentence was also an easier case to deal with first. He was absconding so he didn't defend himself which made life easier for everyone. His defence lawyer was appointed by the Government so there was no question of an energetic defence. He had almost no political backing so there was no pressure. But now that he is gone, it's the tough ones carrying a much higher political cost that has come in front of us. One hopes the government knows what's on particularly for a government which is now famous for waking up after the thief has fled or sometimes even hiding the thief.

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While elsewhere there maybe discussions on the quality of the trial, the main problem on this soil is the obvious intent of Jamaat cadres to take it on the government and it doesn't look like the government is doing too well. Jamaat-e-Islami has called for a series of hartals and managed to disrupt the scene which was their intent. The police looked woefully inadequate and unprepared and have become the butt of jokes. In fact there was a lot of talk that the Jamaat-e-Islami has effectively infiltrated the police forces and these elements were not interested in fighting the Jamaatis. While some of the police must be supporters of Jamaat, the main reason for their weak performance is the low morale, inefficiency and poor quality of leadership of the law and order agencies. People also simply don't have enough confidence in the forces and the police are not doing too well when it comes to managing street violence and crime solving abilities.

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Several incidents stand out as indicators. While the police are politicised in every regime, when a policeman is rewarded for beating up an opposition leader, a signal is sent to everyone that party loyalty is more important than the role of a peacekeeper and upholder of law and order. Loyalty becomes a substitute for efficiency.

Another is the Sagar-Runi case where the police came out looking like clowns and fools. Even the RAB was pulled in but nothing produced anything. The "Shahara' declaration of 48 hours and the arrest of criminals linked to another case and trying to pass them off as responsible was farcical and further dented the perception as a competent  force.

Finally, the Biswajit case showed to what length the government is ready to go to save themselves from political embarrassment. The fact that the police were actually at the crime scene and didn't step in to save the victim while some of the police were in conversation with the killers, makes the police look not just useless but more as an accomplice to a  crime. Such a police may look good to the party in power but it doesn't make them more able. When senior ministers say that the "police have failed" there is a time to worry.

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Once the verdicts are announced, the Jamaat-e-Islami will become far more desperate and given the way they have been acting one wonders what sort of an effective counter plan exists in official hands.

Rumours have it that the police will use very stern measures including bullets but history shows that the desperate are not daunted by such measures. The way the Jamaat-e-Islami managed to assert themselves without much public support is scary.

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But it's not Jamaat alone that the AL has to think about because the path to an understanding with the BNP is now even more in doubt. Once sentences are handed out, the BNP may be forced to shut all doors but it's possible that the AL wants actually that. If Jamaat-e-Islami is banned as many are demanding, these supporters will go to the BNP and it will get stronger if the Jamaat leaders are hanged. But going to an election under the AL, the hangers of its closest ally may be impossible for the BNP. So the AL will soon have to face two united enemies. Again, it's not about politics but the collective ability to maintain law and order under great difficulties.

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Chaos doesn't make a government popular and the political problems become big when it reigns. It's not enough to hang its enemies. One must ensure that people don't pay a price for that. One hopes that the political cost and contingency plans were calculated when the trial decision was taken. It was a positive decision but the machinery of law and order must also be ready to deal with the impact.

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Afsan Chowdhury is a journalist, activist and writer.