Ivy wins: People’s candidate triumphs over party candidate

It wasn't a victory but a trouncing by Selina Hayat Ivy of Shamim Osman. What she blew away was not a candidate more famous as a mastaan demi-god of Naraynaganj but a chosen son of the ruling party. The ruling party including Osman thought he would win. But the people decided otherwise.

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The election drama began when both Shamim Osman and Selina Hayat Ivy sought the AL blessings as party stalwarts. But while Ivy has a political resume, Shamim Osman is not only a scion of a several generation-old AL loyalist family but it is also the family which practically runs Narayanganj.

While Ivy had run the city well, was popular and as the incumbent had a certain claim, the AL with its everlasting faith in muscle power decided Shamim Osman was a safer candidate and gave its nod to him.

The party may have calculated that this decision was a win-win one because Ivy would/could not go anywhere else politically and Shamim was always there even if he lost. But the election took on larger dimensions and became a vote on whom the ruling party had endorsed and the one who was independent. Kazi Zafrullah, the AL presidium member has said, "Ivy is also our. And supporting Shamim was a tactical move."

No matter what the AL spin managers say now it doesn't sound very convincing. Did AL want to insult itself by putting up a losing candidate? It was more likely a gross miscalculation.

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Apart from backing the 'losing' candidate, the government also messed up the situation by refusing to deploy army to ensure safety even after being requested by the Election Commission. While the electoral campaign was lively with candidate's debate, etc. much of the colour was darkened by the government decision of non-deployment of army at the poll centres. The way EC's request was ignored could only have been possible with official orders and that gives a new dimension to the emerging situation.

If the government will not endorse Election Commission's requests then the chain of electoral command is seriously compromised. The EC is the guardian of Bangladesh elections and by refusing to recognise that, the election system is now edging towards somewhat troubled waters.

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It is intriguing as to why Shamim Osman lost because the family's stranglehold on the locality is well documented. People have grown up hearing how they controlled everything in Narayanganj and the AL always had a safe horse in him to bet upon. Despite many allegations, no criminal charges were ever seriously levelled against him even when there was international interest in his extra-legal career.

His winning potential must have gone behind AL's decision to give him the 'nod' but clearly it was a bad decision on AL's part.

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What is shocking is the margin of difference of votes between Ivy and Shamim which doesn't look like a contest but more of a thumping. Ivy has said that this was a vote against land-grabbers and extortionists and the message is clear as to whom it was meant for and what people may have wanted to see.

But the vote is also historic for any city because the kind of Hindi film godfather type image that the Osmans carry was defeated by thousands of ordinary voters whom Shamim would never think of as opponents.

The NCC polls is surely a victory of small people.

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Shamim Osman's initial reactions expressed the perplexity of the unexpected loser. He has said that "It takes everyone — 1/11, BNP, Jamaat — to beat Shamim. That is exactly what happened here."

Oh, well… what about the voters if you don't mind?

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Whatever may the election looks like, it is an election of change. The traditional power bases belonged to an earlier generation of voting when the Osman name was enough in most cases but that has changed and Ivy's election is a signal of that. The demographics have also shifted and younger voters are certainly less party loyal than their seniors and the AL support is not enough to ensure victory.

The people have responded when given a chance and municipal elections have always been positive this way. One remembers BNP's loss in the municipal elections soon after coming to power in the 90s but that neither changed the BNP nor the AL and no lessons were learnt either but the people may be learning more than the leaders and hoping for change.

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The other part of the system is about the EC and while it does show that elections can be held fairly without military protection, one should not forget that the BNP was not a factor in this election. The presence of each other's greatest rival makes a lot of hate generation and we shall have to see what happens when both rivals are dancing violently against each other in another election.

But by ignoring the EC, a bad precedence has been created and one is now not sure what other EC requests will be denied in future. It is best if the authorities and the EC sit down together to figure out how much they plan to listen to each other next and the people know what to expect from both.

Meanwhile good luck to Ivy, and next time a better judgement from the AL.

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Afsan Chowdhury is a Consulting Editor of bdnews24.com.