Politicians, fend for yourselves

Published : 31 July 2011, 12:53 PM
Updated : 31 July 2011, 12:53 PM

The political arena is full of confusion. But, as it is said, out of chaos comes order, so politics will hopefully take shape out of the current confusion.

Military intervention has been the bane of politics since the counter-revolution of 15 August 1975. Once this malignant factor is removed, politics will regain its legitimate position.

At the moment, conspiracy theories dominate political discussions and wild rhetoric has simulated an environment of despair and desperation, déjà vu 1975 and 2007. Many say that a spectre of military intervention haunts the political space. All this is out of old habit.

The way had ended the political misadventure of the military in 2007-08 showed that the domestic and international conditions are not conducive for either direct military takeover of state power or the military playing the role of an arbiter in Bangladesh politics.

Domestically, the Shushil Samaj (civil society) in general endorsed the military intervention in 2007 in the vain hope of cleansing politics and establishing the rule of law. The military created a mess of everything and the Shushil Samaj eventually veered back to the political process. The Shushil Samaj now talks of military intervention not from any expectation but from apprehensions of grave consequences. It urges the political leadership to compromise and cooperate and strengthen the constitutional process.

Secondly, the neo-rich class, the most powerful among the ruling classes, is still smarting from the wounds it suffered at the hand of the quasi-military regime of 2007-08. This class is evidently scared of any military intervention and wants to see that the political process is consolidated.

Thirdly, the Cantonment produced two former ruling parties –– the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for General Ziaur Rahman and the Jatiya Party for General HM Ershad. The military establishment abandoned the Jatiya Party in 1990 under the pressure of a political movement. The historical rapport of the BNP with the Cantonment was apparently snapped during the 2007-08 military intervention. During that period, the junta tried to sponsor political parties to do the military's biding and the efforts failed miserably. There are no parties in sight which have the capability of preparing the ground for a possible military intervention or providing a political cushion after such an eventuality takes place.

The domestic situation apart, the military usually takes international factors into consideration when it transgresses into the political realm. The 2007-08 military intervention came when some big powers wanted this to happen. The Wall Street Journal reported on June 4, 2007:

"Indeed, until the very last moment, Bangladeshi generals seemed reluctant to strike. Trying to be seen as a benign, enlightened force after democracy was restored [1991], the army has focused on helping the United Nations maintain peace and organise free elections in the world's trouble spots. Nearly 10,000 Bangladeshi soldiers are deployed today under UN command in Lebanon, Congo, Ivory Coast and elsewhere, an arrangement that lets them earn more during a year on UN payroll than in a lifetime at home."

"Following extensive consultations with the US and other Western nations, which by then had denounced the upcoming election as unfair and pulled out observers, the UN on Jan 11 took action. In a formal statement released in Dhaka, the most senior UN official in Bangladesh, Renata Lok Dessallien, cautioned that the scheduled election "would not be considered credible or legitimate." Because of this, her statement warned, there may be "implications" for the Bangladesh army's future participation in UN peacekeeping should the election be allowed to take place."

"Before the day was over, a delegation of Bangladesh generals led by the chief of staff, Gen Moeen, walked into the office of the country's president, a supporter of Ms Khaleda, with the UN statement in hand, according to senior officers. They demanded that the Jan 22 election be cancelled and that power be transferred to a new caretaker administration hand-picked by the army. The army by then had disconnected the land line and cellular phones of Ms Khaleda and her top aides. The president complied."

"In a statement released shortly thereafter, the United States government noted that it has been urging Ms Khaleda's and Ms Hasina's parties "to engage in dialogue to resolve their differences, and to refrain from violence" –– and added that the Bangladeshi authorities "felt compelled to declare a state of emergency." A US official has said that, while the US government did not "actively" seek a coup, it felt "relief" that a catastrophe had been averted. Ms Dessallien of the UN has declined to comment on the record about her role in these events."

The foreign powers –– America and India, in particular –– apparently worried that the Iajuddin Caretaker Government would have rigged the election to perpetuate the Islam-pasand BNP-Jamaat alliance in power and this would have strengthened the Islamist forces.

Once the Election Commission was recast and the voters' list corrected, the very international and regional forces, who goaded the 'reluctant' generals to strike, saw to it that the military returns to barracks, sacrificing its own programme of political engineering.

There is no conceivable agenda for which the international and regional powers may now like to encourage or abet in a military intervention in the country. In fact, the geopolitical and economic interests of the three big powers, America, India and China, are very delicately balanced in today's Bangladesh.

The political parties and politicians who may be scheming, secretly or not so secretly, to involve the military in politics as in the past, should have noticed a few things. First, the military fully cooperated with the government in tackling the Peelkhana massacre of the army officers. Secondly, there was no perceptible reaction in the cantonment when the former army officers who were sentenced to death in the Bangabandhu murder case were hanged. Thirdly, despite stubborn resistance, legally as well as politically, Khaleda Zia had to ultimately vacate her Dhaka Cantonment residence of about four decades in compliance with a notice served by the Directorate of Military Lands and Cantonments. Fourthly, the military observed in stoic silence the annulment of the Fifth Amendment to the Constitution and the commencement of the trial of the war criminals.

The stance of the military indicates that it has settled –– at least for the present –– to mind its own professional business –– and not to roll out tanks in the streets on the plea of saving the nation from the politicians as it did in 1975, 1982 and 2007.

It is now for the politicians to re-assert their autonomy of action. Whatever they want to do –– from power or in the opposition –– they will have to achieve that through improving standard of governance, better organising their parties, forming coalitions and mobilising the people in favour of their policies and programmes.

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NM Harun is a retired journalist.