International jihadi link to the Dhaka attack?

Bangladesh is yet to come to terms with the barbarity displayed by the terrorists while killing 20 foreign hostages on the night of July 2 in a Dhaka café. Two bright Bangladesh Police officers were also martyred when they tried to enter the restaurant and break the siege. It was the first horrific incident of hostage-taking in the country's history – a diabolic plan aimed at making the Bengali nation a hotbed of international jihadi activities.

The brazen attack was the culmination of a series of killing of bloggers, secular activists, progressive intellectuals, foreigners and religious minorities throughout the country since early 2015. The Dhaka hostage situation clearly demonstrated that the Islamist militants, who had so long been concentrating on soft targets, are now in a position to launch bigger offensives and inflicting more damage. The objectives and style of jihadi operations have undergone a major transformation and the ghastly killing of foreign hostages in a high security diplomatic zone of the national capital suggests an ominous sign for Bangladesh. It is startling that such an audacious attack was staged two weeks after a nationwide crackdown on extremist groups in which over 12,000 persons, including members of Jamaat-e-Islami, its student wing Islami Chhatra Shibir, alleged criminals, and nearly 200 suspected militants were arrested from different parts of the country.

Search for attackers' identity

The counter-terrorism discourse in the aftermath of the Dhaka attack has been focused on identifying the real perpetrators of the dastardly act. The dreaded international terror group Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it had deliberately targeted the nationals of crusader countries. However, it is yet to be verified whether the terror act was orchestrated by the outfit's leadership or organised locally. The Awami League (AL) government said the terrorists, who had hacked and shot dead 20 hostages, uploaded the pictures of their victims on Internet. The IS immediately stole the pictures to claim responsibility and get attention.

The AL government has consistently denied the operational presence of the transnational jihadi groups like IS and Al-Qaeda in the country. Instead, the government blames the domestic militant groups aligned with opposition parties for the ongoing Islamist violence. Some government leaders observed that the country's worst terror attack was carried out by homegrown militants at the behest of Pakistan's notorious spy agency Inter Services Intelligence(ISI). Bangladesh premier's Political Adviser HT Imam said fundamentalist Jamaat in collaboration with the ISI wants to "derail" the current secular-democratic dispensation of Bangladesh.

Confirming the identity of the five attackers killed during "Operation Thunderbolt", police said some of them were listed terrorists and several attempts had been made to apprehend them. All the attackers were Bangladeshi nationals aged between 20 and 28. Among them, two had been former students of Bogra madrassa and they reportedly led the annihilation of the foreign hostages at the Gulshan café. The remaining three were residents of Dhaka. The aspect that has surprised many observers is the well-educated and affluent background of most of the attackers. The lone terrorist, who was caught alive by the security forces during the operation, holds the key to the investigation.

The question of IS involvement

Contrary to the AL government's perception that the café massacre was instigated by local religious fundamentalists, security experts say the attackers were linked to international jihadi groups especially IS. It appears that the IS organisation in Bangladesh is now strong and confident enough to face the security forces. Bangladesh's intelligence organisations could not detect the IS masterminds of the attack. Added to this was the inability of the government's counter-terrorism agencies to dismantle the jihadi group's logistic support and financial networks. It is also evident from the attack that Bangladesh's terror modules have been internationalised with groups like IS and Al-Qaeda co-opting the domestic religious extremist forces in their jihadi agenda.

The deadly assault marks a new kind of Islamist militancy that Bangladesh has never experienced before. A coordinated and planned strike on the Gulshan area, which is dominated by foreign diplomats and the country's elites, and the ruthlessness exhibited in the terror act, bore the hallmarks of IS' style of operations. Holey Artisan Bakery and O'Kitchen were specifically chosen by the terrorists to ensure maximum global impact. They targeted a restaurant that has been popular with the foreigners. This was meant to send a clear message to the international community that Dhaka is no longer a safe place for foreigners.

The IS has already made deep inroads into Bangladesh's society, even though the authorities are reluctant to accept this disturbing development. The Indian and Western intelligence agencies reportedly confirmed that the gruesome attack was engineered by the Bangladesh unit of the IS led by Abu Ibrahim al-Hanafi, making foreigners their prime target. The IS' online propaganda magazine "Dabiq" published an article titled "The revival of jihad in Bengal with the spread of light of the Khilafat" in May this year. The Indian intelligence reports indicate that a section of Bangladesh's youth has been radicalised by the IS over the Internet. Senior intelligence officials noted that the AL government's persistent crackdown on the militants has "furthered the inclination of some radicals towards the IS".

Bangladesh Police, which initially suspected the attackers as Jamaat-ul-Mujahidin Bangladesh (JMB) members, has also not ruled out the possibility of an IS link to the July 2 terror strike. Following the banning of militant groups like JMB, Hizbut Tahrir, Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islam, Ansarullah Bangla Team and Saheed Hamza Brigade, their leaders floated a number of outfits under different banners. Most of these jihadi entities are increasingly influenced by IS' ultra-conservative "Salafi" ideology and radical agenda. The rise of the IS phenomenon is also to be viewed against the backdrop of the country's political dynamics. The AL government's relentless crackdown on political opponents has created an uneasy atmosphere which is being exploited by the extremist forces affiliated to the IS.

The JMB factor

The involvement of JMB – one of the active militant groups of Bangladesh, in the terror strike needs to be examined carefully. Although no direct link between the IS and JMB has been established so far, Indian intelligence and security agencies suspect that both the jihadi groups might have reached a tactical understanding to meet their operational requirements. It has been pointed that the IS recently appreciated the JMB in its mouthpiece "Dabiq". Reports say the IS has incorporated some JMB militants into its ranks after the appointment of al-Hanafi as the chief of Bangladesh unit. The likelihood of al-Hanafi assigning the task of executing the plot to the JMB operatives, who owe allegiance to the IS, can not be ignored. The investigation into the terror act is also taking into consideration JMB's links with the country's largest Islamist party Jamaat and the ISI. Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal stated that the attackers were members of homegrown militant outfits like JMB.

The threat of terrorist attack looms large over Bangladesh

A number of jihadi forces including IS are desperately trying to make Bangladesh their new centre of activities in South Asia. They struck again even before the country's full recovery from the traumatic experience of hostage killing. In a bizarre incident on July 7, suspected militants exploded crude bombs near the Sholakia ground in northern Kishoreganj district, killing 4 persons, including two policemen. The attack assumes significance as the alleged terrorists targeted the country's biggest Eid gathering where at least 200,000 people had assembled to offer their prayer. The interrogation of the two assailants, who were nabbed by police, will reveal the identity of the attackers.

It is a matter of concern that the Bangladeshi jihadi forces have been striking with disturbing regularity. Praising the Dhaka terror strike, the IS released a video on July 6 calling for jihad in Bangladesh and threatening more attacks on crusaders and crusader nations. The message was reportedly issued from Raqqah in Bengali. It said jihad has finally arrived in Bangladesh and IS would not stop until establishing Shariah rule across the world.

The continuous killing of secular activists, liberal thinkers, foreigners and members of minority communities, and the attack on Holey Artisan Bakery are to be seen in the light of the IS' recent declaration of the outfit's plans to extend its operations in Bangladesh and beyond. The outfit's new "amir" of Bangladesh al-Hanafi has vowed to eliminate the deviant sects of Islam and other minority groups in order to bring the country under the ambit of IS' version of puritanical Islam. He has blamed the Bengali Muslims for distancing themselves from the "understanding of the Salaf" (the original followers of the Prophet).

The international jihadi groups' efforts to radicalise the polity in Bangladesh poses direct threat to the country's peace, democracy, stability and security. The United States (US) based intelligence firm Statfor in its April 26, 2016 report said the IS is likely to stage more sensational attacks on minority groups and foreigners in Bangladesh in its bid to gain support of local religious extremists as part of the terror outfit's global expansion plans. As per the Statfor report, the IS' list of potential targets includes Christian missionaries, Shias, foreigners and military in Bangladesh.

Recent US report points to the growing terror activities in Bangladesh

The US Country Report on Terrorism 2015 released some weeks back says the number of terrorist attacks and deaths went up significantly in several Asian countries, including Bangladesh, while the figure of such incidents fell by 13% across the world. The US State Department report clearly stated that in 2015 "Bangladesh experienced an increase in terrorist attacks against religious minorities and government installations". It further noted that despite the government's "zero-tolerance" policy towards terrorism and commitment to counter-terrorism cooperation, the country saw a rise in violent extremist activities in 2015 compared to 2014. It pointed out the involvement of transnational groups like IS and Al-Qaeda in the Indian Sub-continent (AQIS) in the Islamist violence.

The need for a robust counter-terrorism strategy

Bangladesh has to recalibrate its counter-terrorism strategy after the barbaric killing of 20 hostages. Many believe that the distinction between the local extremists and transnational terror outfits has become less important in the context of the growing radicalisation in the country. The café attackers were no doubt Bangladeshis, but we can not lose sight of the fact that the IS' radical agenda has inspired them to participate in jihad. The AL government has to take this aspect into consideration while devising anti-terrorism strategy.

The need of the hour is to focus beyond the discourse of domestic militancy. The country's ruling elites will do well in reaching a national consensus to combat militancy and violent religious extremism. Constant political bickering and ideological schism are likely to make Bangladesh even more vulnerable to jihadi threats. The government should do everything possible to turn the tide of radicalisation. It can no longer remain ambivalent in its approach towards terrorism, as the virus of jihad is making repeated forays into Bangladesh's society. The attack on the upscale Gulshan area was designed to undermine the country's pluralistic character and secular fabric.