BJP wins Assam polls over the question of identity

Riding on a massive wave of "parivartan" (change), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance achieved a landslide victory, winning 86 seats in the 126-member Assam assembly. After remaining in power for the last 15 years, Congress suffered a humiliating defeat, securing just 26 seats. In 2011, the Congress emerged as the single largest party bagging 78 seats. This time the BJP leadership seized the historic opportunity to dislodge its arch rival Congress from power by raising emotive issues like Assam's identity and "swabhiman" (pride). The Hinduvta brigade has struck a chord with the local population, emphasising the need for a change of guard at Dispur's Janata Bhawan – the seat of power in the state.

The BJP's stupendous victory has boosted its image as a national party. Assam is politically the most important state in the North-eastern region for both the mainstream parties. Following BJP's impressive performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections winning 7 out of 14 seats, its leadership has attached much importance to this frontier state. In the same year, the party's state leadership formulated "Mission 84" strategy to win absolute majority in the Assam assembly. It was designed to make BJP the single largest party in the state and the latest results clearly vindicate the strategy. The phenomenal rise of BJP in Assam has caught the attention of many observers.

The BJP has stepped up efforts to spread its tentacles across the North-eastern region, making Assam its base. The party's major success in the last parliamentary elections has altered the political dynamics of the state. The saffron party has been steadily increasing its footprint in the state over the years. From a vote share of mere 1.1% in the 1985 assembly elections, BJP received 36% of votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls – the largest among the political parties. In the 2016 assembly polls, BJP's vote share has increased to 29.5% from 11.47% in 2011.

In upper Assam, BJP has made serious inroads into Congress' traditional support base among numerous ethnic groups, including Adivashis (tea tribes), Ahoms and Mishings who are mostly Hindus. The BJP's consolidation of Hindu votes in both Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys has been the primary reason behind Tarun Gogoi's worst electoral debacle in his otherwise illustrious political career. BJP won eight out of 15 seats in Muslim-dominated Barak Valley. The victory of a BJP candidate from the minority community has surprised many. BJP's minority cell claims that the party secured at least 16.5% of the Muslim votes this time. The party also did well in the two hill districts of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao, winning four out of five seats. Projecting state BJP president and Union Minister of Sports and Youth Welfare Sarbananda Sonowal, who belongs to Kachari tribe, helped the party to garner the support of several indigenous ethnic groups across Assam.

Local reports suggest that BJP received more than 80% support of the tea tribes, which was less than 40% in 2011. Of the 34 seats in Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys, the BJP-led alliance won 25 seats, while the Congress could manage only 9. The Adivashis, which forms the second largest vote block in the state after the caste Assamese, are considered as Congress supporters. However, the election results indicated a major change in the electoral behaviour of the plantation workers.

Rashtriya Swamsevak Sangh (RSS), which has stronger presence in upper Assam than its political organisation BJP, laid the foundation of the saffron party's remarkable victory. The RSS activists focused on the Adivashi-inhabited areas of upper Assam. The tea tribes dominate in as many as 40 constituencies in the districts of Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Jorhat, Sibsagar and Golaghat. According to reports, the RSS has established 200 branches with over 20,000 workers in these areas. Its members have been building a rapport with the tea garden workers through various socio-religious functions in the recent years. It is estimated that RSS has set up about 830 branches in over 600 places throughout the state. In the last few months, its members worked tirelessly mobilising the voters in areas where the growing number of illegal migrants poses threat to the indigenous people. The RSS functionaries tried to ensure that the BJP wins the confidence of the greater Assamese society.

BJP's regional ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which was totally marginalised in the state polity during the Congress rule, improved its performance, winning 14 of the 24 seats it contested. The Bodoland People's Front (BPF), another alliance partner of the BJP, succeeded in retaining all the 12 seats it had won in 2011. Like Congress, pro-minority All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) suffered a serious setback. Its strength reduced to 13 from 18 in 2011. Besides, party supremo Badruddin Ajmal, a billionaire perfume baron, lost to Congress in Salamara South in minority-dominated Dhubri district bordering Bangladesh. The minorities constitute more than 50% of the population in at least 35 constituencies in lower Assam and Barak Valley and these regions saw a triangular contest among BJP, Congress and AIUDF. The polarisation of the electorate along religious lines and division of minority votes between Congress and AIUDF largely benefited the BJP at the end.

The BJP leaders exploited the highly emotive illegal immigration issue to the hilt. The Sangh Parivar's aggressive campaigns against the illegal Bangladeshi immigrants fetched rich electoral dividends for the BJP candidates in lower Assam and Barak Valley. The BJP-led alliance parties' catchy slogan of "jati-mati-bheti" (identity, land and homeland), that vowed to protect the cultural, political and economic rights of the indigenous people against unabated influx of Bangladeshis, had gone down well with the different linguistic and ethnic groups.

The possibility of Ajmal, who is viewed as supporter of illegal immigrants, emerging as king-maker in a hung assembly was highlighted as a major danger to the indigenous people's existence. The BJP and its allies repeatedly stressed that the Assamese identity would be threatened if Congress comes to power with the support of AIUDF. Immediately after winning the election, Sonowal promised to resolve the long-standing illegal migrants' issue once the National Register of Citizens is updated. He said the illegal migrants would be made "stateless" people and deported to Bangladesh with the Centre's help. Sonowal assured that one of the top priorities of his government will be to completely seal the India-Bangladesh border in the next two years to stop infiltration.

Another local leader Himanta Biswa Sharmah played an instrumental role in BJP's impressive win, working as a master strategist. Reports say he conceived the idea of forging an alliance with the regional political groups like AGP and BPF to prevent division of anti-Congress vote. Himanta often racked up the sensitive illegal immigration issue to garner popular support and election results show that he succeeded in his endeavours especially in lower Assam. He has the ability to read the minds of the people and effectively implement government programmes. Himanta was an influential member of the Gogoi cabinet for many years and switched over to BJP with 9 Congress legislators in September 2015.

Sonowal's popularity among the youth of the state also helped BJP to win support of the first time voters whose number has been highest this year. He was a key leader of All Assam Students' Union (ASSU) that spearheaded the anti-foreigners movement from 1979 to 1985.  On May 24, Sonowal was sworn in as Chief Minister along with 10 other ministers in a glittering ceremony in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Guwahati. The BJP, which has just formed the first elected government in North East, seeks to make Assam a model state. But governing a problem-ridden state like Assam may be an easy task. It remains to be seen how Sonowal's coalition government addresses the state's pressing issues, including chronic insurgency, high unemployment, industrial stagnation, and recurrent flood and soil erosion after the overwhelming support it received from the people of Assam.