Assam polls: BJP’s sectarian campaign may pay off

The 2016 Assam assembly election that coincided with Bihu festival generated widespread enthusiasm among the voters. It was perhaps the most peaceful poll in the insurgency-infested region during the last one decade or so. Assam witnessed 84.72% voting, highest ever in the electoral history of the state, indicating possible exciting results in the high-stakes Congress-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contest for power in the 126-member assembly.

Local reports suggest that the ruling Congress had an edge over its arch rival BJP in the first phase of polls held on April 4 in 61 constituencies spread across upper Assam and Barak Valley. Upper Assam, which is home to numerous indigenous and migrant ethnic groups, including Mishing, Ahom and Adivashis (Tea tribes), has been a strong bastion for Congress. Bengali-inhabited Barak Valley is another fortress for the grand old party. However, the party's support bases in both the Brahmaputra and Barak Valleys have eroded considerably in recent years after the entry of pro-minority All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Hindu nationalist BJP into the state politics.

Polls in the second phase on April 11 covering 61 constituencies of lower Assam saw a tougher contest between Congress and BJP. In central and lower Assam, where migrant Bengali speaking Muslims dominate, the mainstream parties especially BJP tried to polarise the electorate along religious lines. The BJP leaders racked up the highly emotive illegal immigration issue in their bids to enlist popular support. Former Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sharma, who joined the saffron party in August 2015 following his rebellion against Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi, threatened to change the cut-off year mentioned in the 1985 Assam Accord for granting Indian citizenship to migrants from Bangladesh. Sharma stirred a new controversy saying 1951 should be made the base year for detecting and deporting illegal immigrants. As per the accord, any person who came to Assam on or after March 25, 1971 shall be detected and expelled in accordance with law.

During the election campaigns, the BJP leaders targeted the Bengali Muslims who constitute almost 80% of the state's minority population. The saffron brigade accused Congress and AIUDF of using the illegal immigrants as their vote banks. BJP president Amit Shah pledged to stop infiltration once and for all if voted to power in Assam. Chief Minister Gogoi on the other hand vowed to protect each and every legal Muslim migrant. Some observers believe Gogoi's assurance on minority security in the final phase of voting was designed at minimising the possibility of AIUDF making inroads into Congress voters.

Muslims, who comprise 34.20% of Assam's population, played a decisive role in as many as 41 seats of lower Assam where Congress was pitted against AIUDF. In the 2011 assembly elections, AIUDF secured 17 out of 18 seats in lower Assam. However, it may not be easy for the party to retain all the seats considering the ground realties of the 2016 polls. Bengali Muslims wary of BJP's agenda in Assam wanted a party that could not just form a government but would safeguard their interests as well. Prior to the election, the local Muslim leaders advised their supporters to cast vote intelligently to ensure the defeat of the BJP nominees. Many believe that the minority voters might have supported the Congress candidates who were directly fighting against the BJP aspirants. In such a scenario, AIUDF may lose some seats in lower Assam reducing its tally to 10. Nevertheless, AIUDF supremo Badruddin Ajmal, a billionaire perfume baron, could still play the role of a king-maker in a hung assembly.

The BJP leaders are optimistic that consolidation of Assamese Hindu votes and tough fight between Congress and AIUDF would eventually fetch rich dividends to their candidates. The saffron brigade left no stone unturned to mobilise public opinion for ousting Congress which has been ruling the state uninterruptedly since 2001. While addressing an election rally at Guwahati, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to woo Assamese voters whipping up Bihu sentiments. The BJP struck a chord with the urban and young voters pitching for "parivartan" (change). Himanta Sharmah, one of the most controversial local leaders, played a major part in this regard. He emerged as a grand strategist and effective vote-catcher for BJP in many areas of lower Assam, including crucial districts of Kamrup rural and metro.

Beating anti-incumbency, Congress performed well in 2011 bagging 78 seats. But the rapid rise of BJP in Assam particularly after its phenomenal success in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls has altered the political dynamics of the state. Gogoi, who had been at the helm of affairs for the last 15 years, fought the toughest electoral battle of his political career in April 2016. In addition to the anti-incumbency factor, Congress did not opt for pre-poll alliance with the like-minded parties. Realising the odds against his party, Gogoi admitted that the absence of tie-up with left might have split secular votes in lower Assam.

BJP was much ahead of Congress in terms of forging partnership with regional parties. Modi's election rally at Guwahati was attended by chief ministers of neighbouring Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, and leaders of local alliance partners Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and BPF. Assam-based AGP is likely to win 6-8 seats even though the party suffered a vertical split over the issue of alliance with BJP. Another important ally of the saffron party, BPF is expected to do well in the four Bodo-dominated districts of Kokrajhar, Baksa, Chirang and Udalguri. BPF, which was floated by now disbanded militant group Bodo Liberation Tigers, won all the 10 seats in the Bodo Territorial Council area covering four districts along with two others in the northern bank of the Brahmaputra in 2011. The Hagrama Mohilary-led Bodo political outfit, which pulled out of Congress alliance in 2014, held key to BJP's success in the final phase of voting.

Assam has been facing several intractable problems, including ethnic conflict, industrial stagnation, boundary disputes with neighbouring states, high unemployment, recurrent flood and soil erosion. But surprisingly, none of the national parties did raise such issues in the electioneering. Instead of focusing on the state's current challenges, the political leaders indulged in petty politicking and blame game. The impact of the political elites' diversionary tactics on the overwhelmingly rural voters of the state will be known once the results are declared.

Assam's polity is a mosaic of diverse ethnic, linguistic and religious groups and such diversity has added a new twist to the 2016 electoral battle. BJP is currently engaged in a tough fight with Congress over winning the support of the Adivashis who decide the fate of candidates in nearly 35 seats of upper Assam. Riding on Modi's wave in the 2014 general elections, the party penetrated deep into the tea garden belts winning a number of seats that had been regarded as Congress' forts for several decades. Local poll observers said Congress could regain at least 50% support of the various tea tribes this time as the National Democratic Alliance government headed by Modi at the Centre failed to deliver on its poll pledge of granting Scheduled Tribe status to six ethnic groups of the state, including Adivashis.

It has been noticed in the recent period that the party which does well in upper Assam eventually forms the government at Dispur. However in 2016 assembly polls, Congress may not emerge as the single largest party despite doing better than BJP in the first phase. The final round of poll encompassing central and lower Assam is most likely to be the determining factor for government formation. According to various opinion polls, BJP-led alliance may win 55-60 seats, while Congress will secure 50-55 constituencies. The BJP-AGP-BPF alliance is poised to stake claim for the next government even with the support of AIUDF. Under such circumstances, Ajmal could lend outside support to BJP in order to keep Congress out of power. It remains to be seen how Ajmal plays his cards once the results are announced on May 19.