Domestic politics delays signing of the Teesta deal

Rupak Bhattacharjee
Published : 1 July 2015, 10:38 AM
Updated : 1 July 2015, 10:38 AM

Despite achieving breakthroughs in several areas of India-Bangladesh relations during the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historic June 6-7 visit to Dhaka, both the countries are yet to resolve the most contentious bilateral problem—the Teesta. It has emerged as an emotive issue in Bangladesh where political elites, foreign policy experts, media, and the public expect the upper riparian country India to come up with a mutually acceptable water-sharing formula at the earliest.

After holding talks with his Bangladesh counterpart Sheikh Hasina and other leaders of the ruling Awami League (AL), Modi expressed his government's firm resolve to find an amicable solution to the long-standing issues of Teesta and Feni rivers with the support of state governments in India. The Teesta flows through north Bengal before entering Bangladesh and New Delhi must take state Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee into confidence prior to finalising the water-sharing deal with Dhaka.

The Centre could not make significant forward movement on the Teesta question as populist Mamata continues to play politics with it and seeks to use the issue as a bargaining tool while demanding greater financial allocation for her state facing resource crunch.

During her February visit to Dhaka, she assured the AL Government of her full support in resolving the issue. However, Mamata consciously avoided making any statement on the Teesta when she was in Dhaka for the second this year. Many in Kolkata believe that she is unlikely to say anything about the issue till the Bengal assembly elections in 2016.

In September 2011, when former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Dhaka, both sides finalised an interim agreement on equal sharing of the Teesta water for 15 years. It could not be inked eventually due to the firm resistance from Mamata.

The Bengal chief minister reportedly said she is not opposed to the Teesta deal, but cannot accept any one-sided decision as protection of her state's interest is her priority. The state government has already communicated to the Centre that the 2011 agreement had some shortcomings. Reports suggest that she may extend her support to a new draft agreement that takes care of north Bengal's concerns.

Bangladesh wants an agreement with India which ensures equitable sharing of the Teesta waters. Dhaka has always stressed on "fair-use policy" while the government of Bengal is bidding its time to take a final decision as conceding the neighbouring country's demand may necessitate the state to use less water.

It appears that Mamata's Trinamool Congress is worried about the political fallout of signing the deal. Mamata fears that her party may lose the support of north Bengal's voters if she makes any commitment to Bangladesh on the Teesta issue before the 2016 assembly polls.

India and Bangladesh share 54 common rivers. However, in the last four decades, the two countries inked only one pact on sharing water of the Ganges in 1996. The India-Bangladesh Joint River Commission (JRC), which was formed in1973 to explore ways of sharing water of common rivers, could not make much headway even after meeting more than 30 times. The JRC members have been engaged in talks on sharing waters of seven rivers, including Teesta and Feni, for nearly two decades.

After originating from Sikkim's highland bordering China, the Teesta flows for about 315 km. Out of this, 130 km is through Bangladesh. The Teesta enters Bangladesh from Burigram and flows through Duani Barrage further inside the country's territory to finally merge with the mighty Brahmaputra (Jamuna in Bangladesh) at Teestamukh Ghat.

The crux of Teesta's problem lies in Bangladesh where the river almost dries up in the winter season every year. It can not be denied that building of innumerable hydropower projects in Sikkim has drastically reduced the flow of Teesta water in recent years.

Bangladesh's river experts claim that India is withdrawing a large volume of water through the Gazalboda Barrage to meet its irrigational requirements. They maintain that Bangladesh's Teesta Irrigation Project, which was launched in the 1980's, has been adversely affected due to random withdrawal in the upper stream.

The country needs at least 4,500 cusecs of water for the 60,500 hectares of cropland in northern districts. But in the lean period between December and April, the water flow is often reduced to less than 1000 cusecs. Bangladesh has pointed out that during the last dry season, the flow of water was recorded below 500 cusecs—one of the lowest in its history.

The gradual decline in the flow of water is a matter of serious concern for Bangladesh. This has threatened the livelihood of many people in northern part of the country. Recent studies conducted by domestic as well as international agencies observe that 9.15 million Bangladeshis are heavily dependent on the Teesta for employment opportunities.

The shortage of the Teesta water has not only caused severe hardships to the Bangladeshi farmers and fishermen but also resulted in siltation of the river bed. The environmentalists have cautioned that if the ongoing crisis is allowed to precipitate further, the river may completely dry up in Bangladesh. The affected people have been staging protest demonstrations in Dhaka and elsewhere demanding an immediate settlement of the problem.

On November 15, 2011, Mamata decided to set up a commission headed by eminent river expert Kalyan Rudra to assess the ground situation. Rudra submitted a preliminary report in December 2012. In his report, he clearly mentioned that in the greater interest of keeping the Teesta alive, it is important to maintain the normal flow of the river towards Bangladesh.

He reportedly suggested that before reaching a final understanding on sharing of the Teesta waters with Bangladesh, a detailed real-time data of the river's ecological flow, a study of the river's sustainability, engineering and its environmental impact assessment should be undertaken. But Mamata shelved the report unceremoniously. Media reports say she was unhappy with hydrologist Rudra's observations.

It is very unfortunate that Mamata has appropriated the Teesta issue for political gains. The people of Bangladesh's Rangpur division are tirelessly campaigning to save the river, while no such mass movement has been reported from Bengal. Mamata insists that the flow of water in the Teesta has come down sharply due to the expansion of irrigation networks and construction of several dams upstream.

Recent reports indicate that Bangladesh, which initially demanded an equal share of the water after keeping about 20% for the river at Gazalboda point, in the present circumstances, may agree to less than 40% share for a start. We hope that Mamata will demonstrate similar accommodative spirit to resolve the lingering problem.

Being a lower riparian state, Bangladesh has long been seeking India's cooperation to utilise the full potential of water resources at the disposal of both the countries. Bangladesh's High Commissioner to India Syed Moazzem Ali recently suggested that the two countries could work on "joint river management" of the all common rivers to address the problem of receding water levels during the lean season. Former Bangladeshi diplomats also expect charismatic Modi to initiate a "new kind of vision" in water-sharing and joint management of all the rivers that flow through each other's territory.

There is no lack of intent on the part of India's union government to further strengthen the bilateral cooperation with Bangladesh on diverse areas, including water sharing. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) Government understands the sensitivities of the Teesta issue and its significance in Bangladesh's polity, but has to operate within the limitations of a federal democratic dispensation like India.

It is expected that the NDA Government, that has made "Act East" initiative its major foreign policy plank, and promised to deliver governance and development, will reach a common ground on the sharing of the Teesta water.

Dr. Rupak Bhattacharjee is an independent political analyst based in New Delhi, India, and focuses on issues related to India-Bangladesh relations, insurgency, infrastructure development, and regional connectivity in North-East Bangladesh.