Earthquakes beware

"Hundreds and thousands

of death;" "Billions of dollars in damages;" and "The land of shoddy construction" these are the headlines that the people of Bangladesh are very likely to wake up to if an earthquake like the one in Nepal ever hit Bangladesh. Earthquakes have never featured prominently on the list of natural calamities that the unfortunate people of Bangladesh have had to endure. But it is high time that people accept the fact that it is a real possibility, and that if such a possibility ever materialises, the death and destruction to property will be so severe, it will significantly derail the trajectory Bangladesh's economic development.

The reason for developing a national plan for dealing with earthquakes can be demonstrated by modifying Pascal's wager. Blaise Pascal posited that it may be prudent and rational for human beings to believe in God because if God (or Allah) does exist, then there is an infinite gain in having the belief and there is an infinite loss for failing to believe in the existence of the said divine entity. If, however, it turns out that God does not exist, then the loss of having the belief would be finite.

Modifying the logic, it would be far more prudent to develop and implement an earthquake disaster plan because the losses from an earthquake would be immensely great given the current state of development in the economic hubs of Bangladesh (Dhaka, Chittagong). Having such a plan would also confer enormous benefits on the people of Bangladesh by severely reducing the numbers who would perish and enable citizens to weather the calamity more effectively. If for some reason the earthquake never materialises, then the economic cost associated with the implementation and the development of the earthquake management plan would be capped at a much lower price.

Earthquakes are a terrible calamity. Given the current stage of development if Bangladesh is unfortunate enough to encounter one, then it will decimate our fledgling economy. The earthquake will not discriminate between the rich and the poor, the powerful and the weak. It is a great equaliser that will destroy everything in its path irrespective of political affiliation or religious belief. Setting aside the issue of whether the people of Bangladesh deserve such an event because Bangladeshis have failed to promote the religion of Islam by hacking and persecuting non-believers, it would be wise for the people to accept the fact that the designs of the All-Mighty are beyond the feeble minds of human beings.

If the past is any guide, for example from earthquakes in Iran and Pakistan, there is strong evidence suggesting that Muslims have not fared well with natural disasters. Therefore, it would be wise for the people of Bangladesh to treat the risk of such an event as a very serious possibility. Even if the probability of such an event occurring is very low, earthquakes should definitely be one of the most important things on the agenda of the State Disaster Management department because the potential for damage is immense.

It is quite possible that Bangladesh could seek assistance from countries such as Japan and the United States who have far more experience with dealing with earthquakes. There is a very high likelihood that these countries will offer their help because if the economic condition of Bangladesh deteriorates, then it will lead to an international crisis. It is in the interest of the people of Bangladesh and the international community to avoid such a calamity.

One of the most urgent things that the state needs to do is to conduct a damage assessment study of an earthquake in the range of 7 to 9 on the Richter scale. This is very important because it will provide the government and the international community a solid idea of the calamity that the people of Bangladesh could potentially face. Once a disaster cost analysis has been conducted, then the State could work with the help of international and local experts to develop a plan that could reduce the risk of damage. Even if all the new buildings that are built are able to withstand the challenges of an earthquake, there are many buildings and construction projects in Dhaka and Chittagong that will fall apart like a house of cards if an earthquake hits Bangladesh.

The objective would be to try to assist these people to bring their buildings and construction projects up to code and thus enable them to deal with an earthquake. If the state takes a heavy hand and starts to cordon off buildings and projects that do not fulfill the codes, then it will raise political unrest especially given that many influential persons own such structures. The state has to be careful and the idea is to make these people realise that if there is an earthquake, then they stand to lose a lot more. Since many people who own property in Bangladesh are quite affluent, it may not be a tough sale especially if the cost of bringing these changes is facilitated by loans and financial assistance.

Failure for taking the necessary preparation would be a shame because the people of Bangladesh have been given notice of the risk of earthquakes. Even though the exact time of an earthquake is indeterminable, that does not mean the risk should be ignored. The leaders who take charge and implement such changes will be remembered in history not only for taking care of their country but also as its saviours.