An unlikely guest

On the 10th of August, the former president of Bangladesh and chief of Jatiya Party H. M. Ershad went on a week-long visit to India responding to an invitation from its prime minister. Upon his return it was revealed that apart from meeting the prime minister Manmohan Singh, Ershad also met with the president Pranab Mukherjee and the Congress chief Sonia Gandhi. Furthermore, he stated that in his meetings he had detailed discussions on issues of national importance ranging from the Teesta Barrage to Tipaimukh and shared Indian Government's intention of finding a viable solution to those unresolved matters. So what does it actually mean when the world's largest democracy invites a former dictator of a neighbouring country?

There is no denying the fact that there is a sense of ambiguity about Ershad's trip to India but the implications are undoubtedly detrimental to the continuation of democracy in Bangladesh. Since the fall of his regime in 1990 the General managed to prolong his career by virtue of politics of building alliances and brokerage of power. It is quite safe to say that the Jatiya Party is a spent force in national politics and Ershad's credibility as a leader and a policymaker is very much in doubt given the fact that he tried to equate himself into a position of power with every single party that obtained a majority since elections beginning from 1991.

Now let us observe closely the possible speculations that are circulating regarding Ershad's visit to Delhi. One of the prime speculations among the public evidently is the idea of India seeing Ershad as the so-called third force in the realm of Bangladesh politics. A close look at the grassroots support of JP will reveal that apart from very limited regional pockets (Rangpur being the stronghold) the rest of the country is not likely to provide the mandate to this party. However, in the 2008 elections Jatiya Party managed to bargain their way into acquiring a significant number of seats by allying with the Awami League where the League decided not to field any candidate hence allowing their significantly smaller alliance partner to gain some grounds. Statistically, the number of votes cast around the country clearly reveals that despite Awami League's landslide victory, the BNP still accounted for more than 37% of the votes obtained nationwide. Jatiya Party's performance in the national elections starting from 1991 clearly reveals that they do not have the grassroots support to be the third force in Bangladesh politics and furthermore Ershad's sporadic changes in political positions and incessant switching of alliances have turned him into a rather confused and unreliable character in the public eye over the years.

I am more than confident that our powerful and democratic neighbour is well aware of the ground realities of Bangladesh politics. Hence, it is quite safe to say that the theory of India's view of Ershad and Jatiya Party as a potential political force for the future is highly unlikely and unfounded. Surely a country like India deemed to be one of the scions of democracy is expected to respect the wishes of the people of its neighbour and have faith in their mandate.

The second speculation that seems to be in the air is the mere possibility of Ershad trying to gain India's support in order to secure an influential post in the next government by virtue of alliance, so that he can further prolong his career. It is quite safe to say that Ershad has already outlived his political expiry date with his ever shrinking vote bank. The people of this country do not want to see someone like H.M. Ershad in any position of authority and policymaking. There is a demand for fresh and young leadership and only the nature of the coalition after the upcoming election will decide Ershad's fate and longevity, not any external force or a neighbouring country. I am confident yet again that our substantially bigger and more responsible neighbour is well aware of this as well. Hence, it is quite safe to say that this particular speculation does not hold much water either.

The last and the most rampantly circulating speculation is the possible concept of having the Jatiya Party as the strong and visible opposition amidst the growing controversies over the caretaker government and the impending possibility of the BNP not participating in the next general election. There is a public suspicion that India might actually endorse this move whereas I completely believe that such a line of thinking is completely irrational and unrealistic. First and foremost, such a move can only lead to chaos and anarchy and not likely to yield a permanent solution. In order to continue and restore democracy it is imperative that both of the two major parties participate in the election. And India is only to gain from a vibrant and functioning democracy in Bangladesh. An unstable Bangladesh can present India with a new set of problems and threaten their national security. So, rationally thinking it does not make any logical sense why India would endorse such a political manoeuvre that might lead to a lack of trust between the two nations.

Despite confrontational politics I still have a substantial amount of faith in the two major political forces in our country to reach some sort of understanding, which will go a long way in strengthening our democracy. The two parties, we must all admit that knowing or unknowingly, has displayed some degree of tolerance in the last four elections, which has enabled democracy to survive so far and I am sure our next door neighbour has that in their notice.

In order for Bangladesh to have a healthy relation with India it is absolutely imperative to build trust. To build trust India should engage with acceptable and credible elements of Bangladesh politics and bureaucracy and when an unlikely guest such as a former military dictator is invited to meet the country's highest office bearers, suspicion is likely to be the most obvious reaction. The people of Bangladesh want to have a relation of trust with India which harnesses mutual benefit and respect. We expect India to engage with the democratic elements, individuals and institutions of our politics so that we can give democracy a chance like they did.

At the end of the day, once the people have spoken everything else takes a backseat.

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Israfil Khosru is a businessman and runs a youth led think tank 'The Bangladeshi' (www.thebangladeshi.net).