Because it’s Democracy

Thank you Dear Readers, for all your good wishes.

I feel healthier, my son feels better, and if it pleases God, we will have no more trips to the Emergency Room this year. Prognosis for my own health: BETTER (As long as I pay attention).

Last week, the graphic for my oredictions featured a seer. I am not a fortune teller, and in fact, I do not believe in fortune-telling. I believe in free will, the awesome gift Our Creator has given us to determine our own fortunes, for better or for worse.

If we do happen to gaze into crystal balls, we soon realise that all we ever actually see is a reflection of our own hopes, expectations and fears. Only God knows the future. What we know are many stories that allow us to extrapolate what might happen tomorrow. The best indicator of what will happen is what has already happened.

That's why people study history.

My own experience allows me to draw some parallels between what is happening now in Bangladesh and what happened decades ago in Argentina. In 1988, Argentina was in a massive economic downturn as Peronista Party candidate Carlos Menem took over as President. His inauguration marked the first time in over 70 years that the transfer of power was peaceful. Menem implemented a turnaround that created an economic miracle. He reduced an inflation rate that reached 5000% in one year (yes, you read it right) down to 9% by the early '90's. My bad luck was to have published a book in 1988. By the time I got my book receipts, they had been rendered worthless by hyperinflation.

Menem worked well restoring ties to former enemies, like Chile and Great Britain. He helped improve the quality of life and helped curb poverty.

However, Menem wanted to hold onto power. He made a deal with opposition parties that would amend the constitution to allow him to stay in power (Presidents were previously limited to one six-year term). In his second term, Menem pardoned some of the dictators that had orchestrated the inhuman "Dirty War" of the 1970's, where the Argentine military had raped women and sold the babies, indiscriminately killed anyone suspected of being a "subversive". He also pardoned some who had been branded "terrorists" on the other side.

Mounting protests by the majority of the population and the Catholic Church, in a country where 92% of the population is Catholic began to sour the administration. Menem's attempt at a third term was stymied by judges within his own party, and he was defeated by another candidate within a reform wing of his own party. In 2001, he was arrested on corruption charges. Some reports noted that he had close to ten million dollars in a Swiss Bank account. Siemens, the gigantic German corporation admitted to having bribed Menem to the tune of two million dollars for a lucrative contract to produce national ID cards. The government dropped the charges and Menem still serves as a Senator from his home province.

I see some similarities in the current political landscape of Bangladesh and the presidency of Menem. No one can deny that Bangladesh has made some important strides under AL leadership, including fulfilling many of the Millennium Goals. I am sure the success will continue, to some degree. We can also understand the reluctance of any political candidate to call back a caretaker government that relies upon the military. But perhaps we are beginning to see a bit of the "pulling away" from the party faithful that accompanied the Menem presidency.

With trials getting underway, one of this year's questions is whether the government will take the necessary step of bringing (all) the guilty to justice after so long, or if The International Crimes Tribunal will carry the taint of political opportunism. As an American, I have always favoured a jury trial, one where other citizens, randomly chosen from among the population, are the ones who render guilty and not guilty verdicts. I fear that if these trials even look politically motivated, they could create an even deeper chasm between the parties that would not be good for the country. Meanwhile, the courts will keep a tight rein on how these proceedings are reported. Again, as an American, I do not understand how a court has the power to do this, and I do think it is a dangerous precedent.

If the political landscape is to change, the challenge will come from within the internal mechanisms that control each party. If the BNP continues to boycott the government, it will eventually make itself irrelevant. Just a guess, but I think a population can only hartal, march and protest so much before the impact begins to wear off. The BNP will have to find a face-saving way to participate in elections without the caretaker government option. There is no political benefit to the AL reaching a compromise on this issue. I think Shiekh Hasina has checkmated her opponent.

To stretch the chess analogy (almost to the breaking point) pawns sometimes become queens, especially when they are able to march across the board unnoticed. I think we are already beginning to see this happen. If the official leadership of both parties continue to shoot themselves in the foot, we will see the pawns begin to make their presence known. We have already seen the result of "queening" both from Dr. Ivy in the AL, and now from Sakku on behalf of the BNP. Khaleda Zia would be foolish not to accept the Mayor Sakku back within the fold. She's already accepted flowers from him, just as Sheikh Hasina accepted flowers from Selina Hayat Ivy. As the officialdom of the party is stalemated, independent factions will find ways to break the logjam. Eventually these political pragmatists will co-opt the parties from the intransigent warring factions. The figureheads of both parties will have to swallow vats of pride, and receive their bouquets. It will be a great year for independents and florists both.

I predict that someone will rise within the AL that will begin to challenge the current leadership. This someone will eventually gain the support and power necessary to challenge the cronie hegemony. I also don't think that these challenges will come at the top. Rather, they will be spread out over the system. I predict Sheikh Hasina will continue as Prime Minister, but with her power curtailed, elements of her own party may be more compromising, thus allowing an environment in which the BNP would be eager to return to government, even as the "loyal opposition". I am guessing that both parties will splinter as the intransigence of their leadership becomes more unpalatable and unproductive.

Elections will happen, and they'll happen without caretaker government. The BNP will boycott the elections, but, and here's my bold prediction, breakaway factions within the BNP will form a separate party and run, and be surprisingly successful, perhaps even successful enough to change the political landscape of Bangladesh for the better. Both elder stateswomen will not be able to rein in their mavericks, and I feel confident that instead, they will have to play the role of peacemaker between the mavericks and the traditionalists within their own parties. This has already happened between the supporters of Yasin and Sakku in Comilla.

Darn, if I had published this part of the article last week, I'd have sounded like a genius.

In the long run, Khaelda Zia will prove better than Sheikh Hasina at maintaining the peace within her own party, simply because she has more to gain from victories like Sakku's than the Prime Minister has with victories like Selina Hayat Ivy's.

Therefore, my prediction for the coming year is that something like the BNP, even if it doesn't carry the party name, will be seated in Parliament by 2013. Elections will be conducted without the cooperation of a caretaker government, or the direct participation of the BNP. Breakaway members of the BNP will be elected, and if they are elected in sufficient numbers (which I doubt), they will form a government that will somehow conjure up some sort of political yoga to allow their woman to return to power, regardless of whether or not she was actually elected to anything. Otherwise, Sheikh Hasina will retain power, but find it increasingly difficult to deal with elements within her own party, and with a parliament that includes something that quacks and waddles like the BNP, whatever it chooses to call itself.

Here's my ulitmate prediction: In 2012, I'll get it wrong more than I'll get it right when it comes to my predictions. Politics will be exciting because it changes from day to day. It will be chaotic because it listens to too many voices. It will be silly because so many people take it personally it. It will ultimately be unpredictable because it's…
Well….

…Because it's Democracy, the awesome gift Our Creator has helped us to secure to determine our own fortunes, for better or for worse.

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Frank Domenico Cipriani writes a weekly column in the Riverside Signal called "You Think What You Think And I'll Think What I Know." He is also the founder and CEO of The Gatherer Institute — a not-for-profit public charity dedicated to promoting respect for the environment and empowering individuals to become self-taught and self-sufficient. His most recent book, "Learning Little Hawk's Way of Storytelling", teaches the native art of oral tradition storytelling.